In January 2025, thirty years will have passed since the infamous New Year’s storming of Grozny. From a tactical perspective, the battles in the capital of rebellious Chechnya turned into one of the Kremlin’s greatest failures in modern military history. In human terms, it resulted in tens of thousands of deaths, primarily among civilians who were ostensibly the ones being "liberated." It was during those days that it became clear: the blitzkrieg launched by Moscow had devolved into a protracted war—the First Chechen War. The first of the major wars waged by modern Russia. The parallels between that "special operation" and the current one are obvious to anyone. But are they mere coincidences or part of a broader pattern? Can it be argued that today’s Russia and the war in Ukraine have their roots in that Chechen war? And why did the attempt to forcefully reshape a tiny republic ultimately end up reshaping the Russians themselves? Key figures of the era share their insights into the decisions that led to the war.

Throughout 2024, as the conflict in Ukraine drags on, the leadership of European countries has been increasingly warning their citizens about a looming war with Russia—this time on EU territory. Even timelines are being mentioned: anywhere from two to eight years. But what lies behind these alarming statements? Is it a calculated effort to remind Europeans of the importance of supporting Kyiv? Or is the prospect of a war between Russia and the West truly real? If a large-scale war is destined to begin, then where, how, and why might it erupt? Lithuania, Finland, Poland, Estonia—journalists from Dozhd traveled across the European countries neighboring Russia to ask local politicians, experts, and military personnel the tough questions. They also sought to capture the sentiments of residents in these border regions, people who may be standing on the edge of catastrophe.